Paul Jones of Weatherbys previews Saturday’s televised Aintree races including the world-famous Grand National

1.45 AINTREE

Peddlers Cross no longer has a penalty to bear after the changes to conditions in the Mersey Hurdle this year which simplifies his task even more and this is no way as near as competitive as the ‘Neptune’ he won at Cheltenham so he is going to prove exceptionally hard to beat here.

He ran out a very good winner of what looked an up to scratch running of that 2m5f Cheltenham affair and remains unbeaten in point-to-points, bumpers and over hurdles so it seems pointless attempting to oppose him.

That said, four Cheltenham Festival winners were beaten on the opening day of the meeting. What would slightly concern me about Najaf is that his trainer said straight after he finished second in a very hard Albert Bartlett Hurdle was that he was now finished for the season and when he says that and runs them again their record isn’t the best as first instincts are usually the best.

He also raced an extra 3f than Peddlers Cross on more testing ground at Cheltenham and his main rival is also not penalised for winning at Cheltenham as they changed the race conditions this year. It is hard to make a case out for anything else on trends or form.

2.15 AINTREE

The Maghull Novices’ Chase has been won a horse that contested the Arkle Trophy for the last 15 years in which the ‘Arkle’ was contested but that stat is under serious pressure this year as Osana looks like being their only serious hope.

The Arkle third may not even start favourite as Henderson looks like to run the Grand Annual runner-up French Opera but he had a hard race off a big weight on soft ground on that occasion and Henderson horses primed for Cheltenham are usually worth taking on at Aintree so I can see a turn up but I am not sure where from as there isn’t much strength in depth in the race.

In a head to head I would prefer Osana to French Opera but do not dismiss last season’s Scottish Champion Hurdle winner Noble Alan as he looked very good in the spring and autumn on a decent surface.

Tataniano bids to extend Paul Nicholls’ superb record in this race but he is maybe not the novice they were hoping he was going to be at the start of the season. Bergo is not out of this either as he loves good ground and a flat track.

2.50 AINTREE

Lack of strength in depth is also notable in the Aintree Hurdle but it does feature the Champion Hurdle second, third or fourth as there is not a lot else in there.

Zaynar will probably start favourite to reverse with Khyber Kim over this longer trip and doubtless try to run the finish out of the Champion Hurdle runner-up but Henderson’s atrocious record in the race would make me think twice about him.

Celestial Halo has just looked like a horse going sour to me and flopped in this race last year so, although he wouldn’t be a stats horse as he has not won over 2m4f like virtually all winners of this race, I find myself coming back to Khyber Kim as the most likely winner even though he may be best fresh.

Souffleur has such a good record on this course as does his trainer who has a decent record with horses returning quickly so he is interesting having run second to Big Buck’s here on Thursday.

Providing all eight stand their ground, he has an excellent each-way chance. The Irish have historically fared well in this race but Muirhead and Won In The Dark have stamina to prove.

3.25 AINTREE

The 3m John Smith’s Handicap Chase features a lot of ageing journeyman handicappers so the novices are interesting chiefly Seven Is My Number and Carlitos. The former ran a decent fifth in the Jewson at the Festival and this drying ground must give him a good chance of staying the trip. Novices have run well recently in the race so he fits that category as well as running at the Festival which has been another plus.

Carlitos could be an exceptionally well handicapped novice racing off just 130 as he has long threatened to be a very good horse until injuries held him back but he looked very useful winning last time and is a huge player here.

Au Courant is older than ideal but that is tempered by the fact that he has only had ten starts in his life so is far from going over the hill and his trainer recently won this race with a ten-year-old and he now has his good ground. He looks to have been laid out for this as was Oedipe for the same yard two years ago.

4.15 AINTREEE

As open a Grand National as there has been in recent seasons and the drying ground is tipping things in favour of the classier horses over the out-and-out stamina-laden contenders. Arbor Supreme is one that will enjoy the ground by McCoy ditched him feeling he may not get round and prefers Don’t Push It who won on this day last year in the three-mile handicap. He is not the safest conveyance either.

Ruby Walsh prefers Big Fella Thanks to Tricky Trickster and it is not hard to see why as he was sixth last year when only a novice but he looks a short enough price.

Of those that ran in last season’s race, State Of Play looks the most interesting now back down to the same handicap mark off which he won the Hennessy Gold Cup a few years back and last year’s fourth has been dropped 5lbs from last year. Mon Mome ran away with it 12 months ago and ran third in the Gold Cup confirming his improvement but maybe he was flattered to finish so close that day as ran on through beaten horses.

Comply Or Die has won and finished second for the last two years so is interesting each-way and last year’s ninth Snowy Morning is starting to look attractively handicapped now.

Of the Aintree virgins, Niche Market makes plenty of appeal having won last season’s Irish National which has been an excellent guide as has the Hennessy Gold Cup in which he finished third to Denman and What A Friend which looks great form now.

A bold jumper that likes to race up in the van like so many winners of this race, Niche Market looks the best call to these eyes. Backstage and Ballyholland are the dangerous Irish lurkers for which the ground is coming in their favour as it is for Maljimar who travels strongly in his races but it may be going against the likes of Welsh National winner Dream Alliance and Cloudy Lane.

Irish Raptor loves it round here and won last season’s Topham but has stamina to questions to answer whilst The Package would be the youngest winner for 70 years if he can win at the age of seven.

As everyone else gives a 1-2-3-4 here we go; Niche Market, State Of Play, Comply Or Die and Maljimar.

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Watch the best Grand National betting previews around, exclusively from the team at William Hill TV.

With an A-Z preview of every horse in the race you’ll find out what the experts think about your selection.

There are revealing indicators in our “trends” videos which look at the ages, weights, distances and more with previous winners and this year’s runners in mind.

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Paul Jones previews Saturday’s racing

1.45 NEWBURY – EBF/Thouroughbred Breeders’ Association Mares’ Novices’ Chase Final

Carole’s Legacy is back over fences after splitting the crack Irish mares Quevega and Voler La Vedette over hurdles at the Festival but this comes plenty quick enough just 11 days after a hard race so it must be doubtful she can repeat that form. Besides, it usually pays to follow mares carrying 11st in this novice chase final like the last seven years and that brings in Calusa Crystal for the Hobbs team whose team looked in sparkling condition in the paddock at the Festival. The winner of two of her four chase starts, with the defeats coming at the hands of class acts like Crack Away Jack and Riverside Theatre, she couldn’t have won any more easily at Warwick last time out. Over Sixty‘s Fontwell winning form was franked when the third and fourth won the Midlands National and Byrne Group Plate in the last eight days but Synchronised or Great Endeavour were anywhere near their best that day. She has her chance off 11st 4lbs on her last start before she heads to the paddocks but I do prefer a lower-weighted mare for this race.

2.00 DONCASTER – William Hill Spring Mile

The draw is likely to be crucial and the result of this race will doubtless have an effect on the market for the William Hill Lincoln later on the card. The last two winners were lightly-raced four-year-olds from southern yards so maybe Elliptical could complete the hat-trick for Gerard Butler and Eddie Ahern. Encouragingly, he won first time out last season when winning a Goodwood maiden and ran two solid races at big tracks during the summer but his form tailed off in the backend. Maybe first time out could be the time to catch him. Ben Chorley is also interesting as David Evans had a sensational season last campaign and did particularly well with horses running for the first time for him having been with other yards. This will be Ben Chorley’s first run for Evans and his first outing since running down the field in the John Smith’s Cup but he did win four of his eight career starts for David Lanigan in a career blighted by troubles as he is now a six-year-old. Kiwi Bay and Conry are others well worth considering in a wide-open handicap.

2.15 NEWBURY – EBF Mares’ “National Hunt” Novices’ Hurdle Final

This race has been the plan all season for Asturienne and you can forget her long odds-on defeat last time as she had puss in her foot and couldn’t put it on the ground after the race. The presence of Banjaxed Girl off top weight has kept the weights down nicely for her but the form of Alan King’s yard is a slight worry, though he had a couple of winners yesterday but I would be concerned if it rained and am very worried about Kerada as Henderson usually lays a good one out for this and also Alegralil if she is back to form and she was being mentioned by McCain in the same breath as Whiteoak earlier in the season but has to bounce back off two disappointing runs but the yard and in great form right now as a brace of winners at the Festival indicates. Ryde Back is also interesting for Henderson as she beat Asturienne in November at Huntingdon under an attacking ride and David Bass takes off a handy 7lbs.

2.35 DONCASTER – Williamhill.com – Live Casino Cammidge Trophy

Prime Defender won this race last season and runs again here but he loves fast ground which he had in this race last season whereas they are currently calling it Soft this time around which would be a worry to his chances. Last season’s second Pusey Street Lady is more interesting as she will handle soft ground having won at this meeting two years ago by five lengths on such a surface so also clearly comes to hand early as she also showed in this race last year when second at 40/1. They could have gone for the handicap on Sunday where she doesn’t look badly treated but prefer a crack at this more valuable Listed race. Tax Free is the one to beat of course holding a significant ratings advantage over the field and he won the Abernant Stakes first time out last season, won first time out on his racecourse debut and was also a close-up third in the Palace House Stakes on his seasonal return in another year so he should be more than ready for his seasonal debut but is likely to be skinny enough as a consequence.

3.10 DONCASTER – William Hill Lincoln

Four of the last 11 favourites have won the William Hill Lincoln and most of those were lightly-raced sorts from powerful yards so I can see Penitent extended that sequence and give Willie Haggas a third win in the race, it’s all a question of whether you are happy to take a short price in an open handicap and who knows if stall 1 will a positive or negative or indifferent? Given how strong he is at the head of the betting there is some decent each-way value somewhere if we can find it and suggest Albaqaa and Huzzah appeal as each-way alternatives. Although the really fancy prices about Albaqaa went earlier in the week, Richard Fahey’s charge looked like his third in his trial at Wolverhampton should have set him up and Paul Hanagan rides which suggests he is the pick of the stable’s three runners. Barry Hills’ Huzzah, who was fifth in last year’s Lincoln only beaten just over two lengths for second and only and has got in off a 5lbs lower mark this time having also gone on to finish second in the Royal Hunt Cup so he strikes me as a major player. Mia’s Boy and Advance are regulars in these kind of races down the years and have place prospects again as does Mull of Killough who improved throughout last season and has been trained specifically for this race.

3.25 KEMPTON – Williamhill.com Magnolia Stakes

If Penitent wins or goes close in the William Hill Lincoln then expect South Easter to take a lot of beating here as they have been working well together. If Penitent blows out 15 minutes earlier, then that would seemingly detract from his chances. The winner of the Dee Stakes last season on just his second ever run, he was then was a shade disappointing when sixth for the King Edward VII Stakes at Royal Ascot when he started favourite but he is a big, backward type so I expect him to come into his own this season. I am taking the view Penitent won’t be far away in the Lincoln so rate him as the one to beat as I write but we will have a better idea after his work companion has run. Heliodor and Suits Me are his main threats if using official ratings as a guide and I prefer Heliodor of the pair as his second placing ten days ago on his return should have put him spot on and he has to run very well.

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Week-by-week Paul Jones of Weatherbys reviews this year’s Cheltenham Festival’s hopes progress. Read his thoughts as the countdown to the greatest show on turf is nearly complete.

Supreme Novices’ Hurdle

It looks virtually certain now that Get Me Out Of Here will contest this race and therefore start as second favourite and I only see him shortening as the rails bookmakers are going to want to get Dunguib who I am certain will start bigger than his current ante-post odds.

It was interesting to hear Willie Mullins talking so enthusiastically about both Flat Out than Blackstairmountain in his interview on RPTV though I don’t doubt he still rates Blackstairmountain as his number one so Ruby Walsh will ride leaving Emmit Mullins to ride Flat Out.

I wouldn’t put anyone looking at either each-way. Of the other top eight in the betting I don’t fancy the Henderson pair of Oscar Whisky or Bellvano (may head for the County Hurdle) or Menorah but would have time for Loosen My Load‘s place chance if he does come here.

Arkle Trophy

Just the usual “everything is going to plan” reports from yards of the leading fancies in a market where the market has been stagnant for a good while now. That may change on the day if J P McManus gets stuck into his Captain Cee Bee but, if he doesn’t, I can see the layers wanting to get him so feel he is another current favourite that could start at a bigger price on the day than he is now.

After his public school I thought it was interesting that Willie Mullins stated he felt Sports Line would improve a fair bit as he commented he had endured a small problem since his last run and he is also likely to let Shakervilz to take his chance and has warned us not to underestimate him highlighting his clean jumping but he has class issues to answer for me in a race that usually goes to a class act.

Edward O’Grady has issued an upbeat report on Osana saying he will improve for his last run when third in his trial but I really just can’t see him winning.

William Hill Trophy

Looking at the weights, it would appear the bottom weight here will carry only around 10st 8lbs so the 11st rule is going to be under threat (the last 10 winners carried under 11st) so I would ignore that concentrate on the official ratings stats that say you’ve had it if rated 150+ like in the last 27 years.

I don’t read much into these things but David Pipe put up The Package as his banker of the meeting at a preview evening in Ireland last week. Character Building has a very good Festival record having won a Kim Muir and should have won the NH Chase (second but wandered on the run-in) and John Quinn has confirmed him for this race and has been backed across the board into fourth favourite but I’ve never been one to consider Grand National-bound horses in this race as they are being trained for another day and I am sure he will be delighted if he finishes in the first six.

I am not having The Tother One off top weight in a race where carrying a big weight is a big negative who is disputing fourth favouritism behind Theatrical Moment who I do have time for as Jonjo O’Neill won this with a novice last season though he has other entries at the Festival and I noticed there was money for his stablemate Isn’t That Lucky who was mapped out to win the Jewson last season and finished second and he looks to have mapped out for something this season as well.

What have the Irish got given they have won two of the last four renewals in which they have had a runner? Not a lot. Siegemaster, but I don’t trust his jumping plus he has enough weight so Casey Jones would interest me more off just 2lbs more than his Irish rating and he has been off since finishing fourth in a Grade 1 back in November and the long absence wouldn’t bother me, in fact, I would see it as a positive but he is rated 151 which would make him the highest rated winner for 28 years.

Champion Hurdle

I’ts been a strange couple of weeks for Nicky Henderson. Firstly Binocular is out for the season with a muscle problem and now there is nothing wrong with him and McCoy says he has missed no work so the Champion Hurdle looks back on the cards.

It would appear he is now going to take his chance again which means that McCoy will be required to ride him so Zaynar could now be ridden by Andrew Tinkler who won on him at Ascot as Henderson stated Geraghty will almost certainly ride Punjabi.

I still feel the each-way money will come for Punjabi who is proving to be a popular selection on the Preview Evening circuit. In addition to Go Native the quickening up of the ground is certainly in favour of Starluck who won over a mile last week in his final prep as that can help him last the trip out better plus Medermit who Alan King is convinced is better on better ground despite winning at Haydock on a testing surface but against Solwhit and Khyber Kim. And what is it with lame horses this season? Sublimity was found to lame on Saturday and now misses the race.

David Nicholson Mares’ Hurdle

The retirement of Whiteoak, who to my mind was one of just four potential winners, has weakened this race further as has the retirement of Candy Creek this week. I can pass on news that last season’s third Aura About You for the Paul Nolan yard is likely to make her seasonal debut in this race and I’ve heard good reports about her latest gallop where she reportedly tanked up the gallops.

Last season’s Champion Bumper fifth Morning Supreme has leapt into disputing joint third-favouritism now with the bookmakers. Willie Mullins had intimated going for one of the novice races with her but as the race is turning into somewhat of a non-event it would appear he may let her take her chance even if he does run the hot favourite.

Mullins’ J’Y Vole has also been a mover which would mean a switch from the Ryanair Chase if that is the case but, reading his quotes on Sunday, the Ryanair remains the plan. As the race is falling apart, Jessica Harrington is now also having second thoughts about running Zarinava who she ruled out a couple of weeks back fearing she wouldn’t stay so, unless they have shortened the course in the last fortnight, she wouldn’t be on my radar. Colm Murphy has confirmed Barry Geraghty for the ride on Voler La Vedette.

Neptune Investment Management Novices’ Hurdle

Now that Ruby Walsh has committed himself to Quel Esprit in this race he has been trimmed and will be popular on the day as well attempting to give Willie Mullins a third win on the spin in the race but I still see the money coming for Rite Of Passage.

With officials watering yesterday, obviously things are quickening up and if the ground is no worse than good-to-soft, seeing the way he came clear in the Irish November Handicap (where he ran to a classy 103), I can only think he will have too much pace for Quel Esprit who many feel should be in the Albert Bartlett having looked one-paced over 2m5f last time when beaten by Coole River.

The winner franked that form and my gut feeling is that Quel Esprit also wasn’t right that day and we will see a much better horse but my opinion of Rite Of Passage is sky high and I will not be opposing him.

I have stamina doubts about Peddlers Cross even though he is a winning pointer as he looked plenty speedy at Haydock, Reve De Sivola doesn’t jump well enough and has been beaten too many times and I can see Quantitativeeasing ending up in a handicap.

There has been money for Summit Meeting off the back of Pricewise’s recommendation plus positive words from Jessica Harrington and it is interesting she runs him rather than Coole River and I can see him go well as I can Finian’s Rainbow on better ground than when beaten in the Challow Hurdle and who Barry Geraghty has been gushing over on the Preview Evening circuit but I can not take on Rite Of Passage.

RSA Chase

The big story has been the problems with the lameness of Punchestowns. I don’t know if they were being over-cautious here and mentioning the problem thus causing many a worry for those that have already backed him but all appears to be well again after a canter on Saturday.

As a result Long Run is now favourite but if Punchestowns is fully fit I maintain he is the one to beat. The big mover of the week however has been Uimhiraceathair so you can read into that he will be Ruby Walsh’s mount. Willie Mullins also contributed to the move by admitting he wasn’t fully fit for his last run when dead-heating with Telenor and will improve plenty and he has trained three winners of the race before.

It looks like The Nightingale will miss Cheltenham altogether for Aintree if Paul Nicholls gets his way but there was a turnaround in the plans for Burton Port who will now tackle the race. Henderson commented after he won the Reynoldstown Chase that he would probably wait for Aintree but I suspect Trevor Hemmings wants a runner so they changed their plan.

Queen Mother Champion Chase

The main news last week was that Nicky Henderson has switched Petit Robin from this race to the Ryanair Chase. I can understand why they have done it as he can’t win this race if Master Minded is anywhere near his A-game but he has a squeak in the Ryanair as there is no superstar but he was last year’s third as a virtual novice and this race is more prestigious so should be running here for me.

The switch means that Barry Geraghty is now free to continue his association with Big Zeb. Master Minded is going to take an awful lot of beating and win it comfortably in my opinion and Kalahari King is the most likely to run on for second picking off those that attempted to serve it up to the favourite with his late hold-up style.

Ryanair Chase

The switch from the Champion Chase to this race for Petit Robin has thrown another contender into the mix as he has a chance but I am sure Henderson rated Barbers Shop his number one as Petit Robin is far from certain to stay 2m5f at top level and he was stuffed when upped to 2m4f in the Melling Chase last season.

It could be that his Champion Chase running when third had left its mark for Aintree rather than the trip but it is a concern. I’ve got a feeling that Tranquil Sea will start favourite and he continues to be backed after his win last week.

Alan King may stick blinkers on Voy Por Ustedes and may not have given up on him but deep down I am not convinced. The betting would suggest J’Y Vole is Willie Mullins’ number one but he has stated he thinks she is better on right-handed tracks so gave the impression he preferred Scotsirish more and his Barker may yet end up here too.

World Hurdle

The two problems with this race are that Big Buck’s has killed much of the betting interest and nothing happens after the Cleeve Hurdle so there is little to report. Time For Rupert remains the horse to interest me most in the each-way market as does Powerstation to a lesser extent given his excellent course form and the ground appears to be moving into his favour.

The vibes I am getting about Karabak are not as strong as they should be for a horse disputing second-favouritism but I don’t think there is anything wrong with him, just that punters are prefering Tidal Bay as the danger.

One thing is for certain, I am not having Sentry Duty staying well enough to finish second. Beware if you fancy Mourad (though we are betting non-runner no-bet on this race) as he is being nibbled at for another handicap at the meeting.

Triumph Hurdle

Soldatino has been the big mover but he looks a skinny price to me now as he beat little at Kempton and took his time to do so. Yes he was well on top at the end and will have learned plenty but he is no value anymore.

The same stable were hoping that Super Kenny may join him here but he had a setback that forced him out of his prep race (and hurdles debut) last week so he is out of the equation. With the ground quickening up all the time I also think Alaivan is poor value at around 4/1 as he looks like he want some real cut which is hear that Secant Star could also do with.

I did hear he had had a little setback last week which went unreported as far as I could see until Monday but Willie Mullins feels all is well again.

Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle

Momentum is getting behind Enterprise Park and I could actually see him challenge the long-time ante-post favourite Tell Massini for outright favouritism on the day. The more I think about it, the more I think we are on the two class acts of the race. Enterprise Park’s stablemate Fionnegas would worry me slightly though if he lines up here but Mullins is undecided whether he heads here or joins Quel Esprit in the Neptune.

Shinrock Paddy is the other big Irish player but has been off for three months where he also had a setback which would worry me. Restless Harry is a front runner so it will be interesting if he and fellow front Tell Massini go toe to toe throughout.

If so, stamina is going to be the name of the game here even more which would concern me if I were a The Betchworth Kid supporter as I don’t think he is absolutely guaranteed to stay all of this trip at an unrelenting gallop. The interesting new horse being considered for this race is last season’s Foxhunters’ winner Cappa Bleu but he has been disappointing since then and I have last year’s Foxhunters’ down as one of the worst I have seen.

Gold Cup

The main news this week is the injury to Taranis that has ruled him out of the rest of the season and he was one of five legitimate contenders to finish second or third in my opinion behind Kauto Star, the others being Denman, Cooldine, Imperial Commander and Tricky Trickster.

Denman has drifted in some places over the last couple of days, probably as punters feel his best chance of winning is outslogging Kauto Star but the ground is heading the wrong way for that. I have noticed a growing feeling that Tricky Trickster could be the fly in the ointment.

He is young enough, in the right yard and has different formlines to the others so we don’t know how good he is which suggests he could be the one to run above himself as usually there is one big priced horse that reaches the frame. Other than that, there is not a lot doing except Jim Dreaper confirmed that Notre Pere will not travel over. There looks like being around ten runners at this stage.

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Week-by-week Paul Jones of Weatherbys reviews this year’s Cheltenham Festival’s hopes progress. Read his thoughts following this weekend’s action.

SUPREME NOVICES’ HURDLE

The vibes I am getting is that more and more this looks like being Get Me Out Of Here‘s Festival objective and he will be popular each-way if that is the case as he has the rating already in the bag to win most renewals of this race. Peddlers Cross will not be lining up here as the Neptune has been mentioned by his trainer as his target and Henry De Bromhead also intimated the Neptune is where he would prefer to run Loosen My Load both of which would have been big players for a place here if taking their chance.

Paul Nicholls has confirmed his representative will be Pepe Simo rather than Ghizao who also heads to the Neptune but I really can not see him being good enough and the same is true of Salden Licht who was a big disappointment in the Dovecote so I imagine if he runs anywhere at the Festival, it will now be in the County Hurdle. Flat Out is a second Willie Mullins to consider in addition to Blackstairmountain as he won on his hurdling debut at Punchestown just over a week ago in a time seven seconds faster than

Won In the Dark recorded in another race on the same day and he has won again since and wasn’t disgraced in last season’s Champion Hurdle. According to Mullins he is bound for this race and his prominent style of racing is well suited to the race.

ARKLES TROPHY

Little to report this week from action on the track but at Paul Nicholls’ media day he was sweet on Woolcombe Folly suggesting the public may have underestimated him but I can’t touch a horse with just one chase start under his belt. Yes, Well Chief won it having had just one chase start but he was one of the top ten greatest two-mile chasers of all time. Woolcombe Folly will not be.

He also reiterated his feeling that Tataniano will be better on better ground but also said he may miss the race if it comes up testing and I notice they also stuck him in the Grand Annual which suggests to me they don’t think he is out of the top drawer.

Walsh is unlikely to confirm his mount until the final few days but Sports Line looks his most likely mount after he impressed in his public schooling session On Sunday. One confirmed partnership is Robert Thornton coming in for the ride on Somersby as McCoy will be claimed by his retainer to ride Captain Cee Bee which looks a good booking to me and it would be most ironic if he were to win as it was Thornton who got the spare ride on Captain Cee Bee when McCoy chose Binocular in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle two seasons ago. Mikael D’Haguenet schooled after Leopardstown but didn’t impress me with his jumping which was fiddly so they would be mad to go for the Arkle in my opinion.

CHAMPION HURDLE

An ideal final prep-race win for Punjabi where he easily beat vastly-inferior rivals that should have helped put him spot on. I don’t doubt that any of the other live Champion Hurdle hopes would also have won that race with plenty in hand but you still like to go and see them do it and he did it stylishly on ground he would not have enjoyed. I see him starting third-favourite on the day as I would very much believe that Geraghty will stay loyal to him now rather than plump for Zaynar. I know it was a mickey mouse race but I still like the idea of Punjabi arriving here off the back of a win like 22 of the last 26 winners.

I can only see four potential winners of the race they being Solwhit, Go Native providing it doesn’t turn genuine soft, Punjabi and Medermit. In my belief Khyber Kim is a mudlark and not quite good enough, Zaynar and Celestial Halo want longer trips, Starluck will struggle to get up the hill at Champion Hurdle pace and the rest are outclassed. The only other possible winner I could entertain is if they switch Voler La Vedette from the Mares Hurdle but that is only likely to happen if some of the leading Champion Hurdle hopes come out.

DAVID NICHOLSON MARES HURDLE

Colm Murphy was interviewed on ATR last week and confirmed once again that this is the aim for Voler La Vedette as he has maintained all season despite the pressure being placed on him to run in the Champion Hurdle. That said, he has left her in the Champion Hurdle in case something awry happens to one or two of the leading fancies so he has left the door marginally open but he was saying that before Bonocular was ruled out and Zaynar was beaten at 1-14 and those two factors wasn’t enough to sway him from his season-long plan.

Paul Nicholls confirmed he would run Pepite Du Soleil but she has been most disappointing this season but it would appear that another disappointing mare this season in Stravinsky Dance will miss the race as. This really is looking just a four-runner race between Quevega, Voler La Vedette, Whiteoak and No One Tells Me and the former came through her public gallop fine at the weekend though we didn’t learn much.

NEPTUNE INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT NOVICES’ HURDLE

The opposition to Rite Of Passage is starting to take shape now as Peddlers Cross was confirmed for this race as was Quel Esprit and Fionnegas for Willie Mullins (but he has been known to change his mind) and Alan King wants to run Manyriverstocross here rather than head for a handicap. Henry De Bromhead also expressed a preference to run Loosen My Load here over the ‘Supreme’ but it was only a preference so this is looking a much stronger race than a couple of weeks ago.

As for Peddlers Cross, although he is a winning pointer, he showed plenty of toe when winning all three starts this season so I just wonder whether this 2m5f may stretch him a little so I prefer Finian’s Rainbow of the home defence as I don’t really think that Manyriverstocross is quite up to this and Reve De Sivola has been beaten too many times in his career to interest me though I am sure he will put up his usual good effort.

I am not a Quantitativeeasing fan and notice he also got an entry in the two of the handicaps which suggests to me they are worried if he has the class.

RSA CHASE

For starters there are three probable notable non-runners following news that Tazbar, Bensalem and Pandoroma look like missing the race. The Feltham Chase runner-up Tazbar has definitely been ruled out of the rest of the season through injury and he was a lively outsider having won his next two starts by 14 lengths on each occasion. Alan King all but confirmed on Monday that Bensalem will indeed run in the William Hill Trophy and it looks long odds-on that Pandorama will also miss the race following a setback.

Ogee won midweek and could come here but I just have last season’s Grade 1 Sefton Hurdle winner as on the small side for a big chasing track like Cheltenham but The Nightingale is a different matter and he looked as smooth as silk when giving Paul Nicholls his fifth Pendil Chase winner on the spin. He is classy for sure but whether he is man enough for a race like the RSA Chase I don’t know as he finished distressed twice last season including when sixth in last season’s ‘Neptune’. Whether he runs is dodgy though as Nicholls has suggested he may be one to wait for Aintree.

Mikael D’Haguenet didn’t impress everyone with his public schooling session on Sunday and it is fair to say he was less than fluent over his fences looking most novicey and he had a good blow afterwards Earlier in the day his stablemate Citizen Vic followed up his Grade 1 win with another victory but it would appear he is likely to miss the Festival and maybe Mullins’ number one will be Uimhiracethair who impressed when schooling alongside Cooldine. I think he is looking more and more like Ruby Walsh’s RSA Chase mount.

QUEEN MOTHER CHAMPION CHASE

Alan King’s had a media day last week and told the assembled press that he had released Robert Thornton to ride Twist Magic for Paul Nicholls even if Oh Crick does run as his owner wanted to keep Wayne Hutchinson on board as he won the Grand Annual on him last season.

The impression I formed was that King was marginally leaning to the Grand Annual again where he conceded he would probably have top weight. Paul Nicholls was very bullish he had Master Minded back to his best at his media day which, if that is the case, the rest are fighting it out for second and another wide-margin victory awaits in his bid to match Badsworth Boy’s hat-trick in the race. David Pipe informed a preview at Exeter that all is well with Well Chief but he is realistic about his chances of placing again but he does go better left-handed and his last three runs have been on right-handed tracks.

Forpadydeplasterer now has the services of A P McCoy which was confirmed today and he looked in very good nick for a horse that was ruled out of the Festival a couple of weeks earlier when schooling well on Sunday.

WEATHERBYS CHAMPION BUMPER

News has recently filtered through that Dermot Weld has had a change of mind and will run both Elegant Concorde and Hidden Universe as he had originally stated that just one would run as they were in the same ownership but clearly his owner is a sporting kind of chap. In addition to Day In A Lifetime and Up Ou That, Willie Mullins added a third contender in his bid to win this race for a seventh time when Bishopsfurze won on his debut last week and like Day In A Lifetime, he is a once-raced, unbeaten five-year-old like five of his six winners of this race.

Kieren Fallon looks like he will have his second ride in the race as has been snapped up for Old McDonald who was last seen in December winning at Ludlow and previously finished second beaten three lengths by leading fancy for this race Tavern Times whose stable supplied last season’s runner-up. There has been some money this week for Drumbaloo whose form when beating Western Leader was franked when the runner-up won a decent novice hurdle last week and Drumbaloo has won again since albeit by a short-head but it was the same Grade 2 race that Dunguib won last season before winning here.

Araucaria now looks up against it after her odds-on defeat at Leopardstown on Sunday behind Edward O’Grady’s Shot From The Hip for the Magniers who is now fourth favourite and he looked good but I imagine J P Magnier will keep the ride and he won’t be able to claim his allowance which has to be a negative.

RYANAIR CHASE

The main focus this week surrounded Tranquil Sea‘s final prep race in the re-routed Newlands Chase at Leopardstown that was abandoned from the following weekend and he couldn’t have done it much better. Many have him down as a soft ground horse pure and simple but I am not so sure and believe he will be pressing Poquelin hard for favouritism on the day as the Irish will pile into him being their main challenger.

With regards to Voy Por Ustedes Alan King underlined he had not lost faith in him at his media day last week and, of all his Festival squad he brought out one by one in the blizzard, it was he that was the liveliest kicking and bucking away and the trainer is adamant he will improve greatly for the step back up in trip as was delighted with him in the Game Spirit until they outkicked him turning for home.

Deep Purple may turn up. Evan Williams has said all season this is not his track so he won’t run but it would appear that the lure of the Festival may prove too much and he has a chance on his Peterborough Chase form giving weight and a beating to all but the jumping in that race by many was awful and he may have been flattered. He then broke a blood vessel in the William Hill King George VI Chase and has not been seen since. He wouldn’t be for me as I think he wants flat tracks.

WORLD HURDLE

No news to report as such but why has Karabak been weaker than most in the markets this week. Paul Webber has issued an upbeat report for his Cleeve Hurdle runner-up Time For Rupert believing him to have a very good each-way chance and I can see that as he is a horse progressing with each starts and meets Tidal Bay on 4lbs better terms than when beaten five lengths last month.

Alan King was sweeter than many expecting when discussing Katchit‘s chance with the press last week commenting he would be disappointed if he is not in there fighting at the final flight on the proviso it wasn’t hock deep ground. There are a lot worse outsiders than the former Champion Hurdler.

TRIUMPH HURDLE

The market has been all over the place over the last few days following the weekend’s action and injury scares. Mille Chief missed the Adonis Hurdle through lameness as he is now a serious doubt for the race. Fingers crossed they can source the problem as soon as possible so all is not lost as they will have to get him working again soon or there is little point heading to Cheltenham if he is not in tip-top shape. It doesn’t sound promising though.

As for Secant Star, his form was franked last week by Capellanus who looks a live hope for the ‘Fred Winter’ but another leading Irish hope in Pittoni was beaten into third against older horses at the weekend and is now a major doubt as he finished “clinically abnormal”. I imagine Paul Nicholls is kicking himself for not entering the impressive Dovecote Hurdle winner on Saturday Escort’Men as he bolted up so he will head to Aintree instead. On the same card Nicky Henderson’s Soldatino won the Adonis Hurdle in the absence of Mille Chief on his British debut and just his second hurdling start. I doubt he beat much as Ultimate didn’t run his usual race on testing ground as he barely stays two miles so he wouldn’t be for me.

Given the problems with Mille Chief, Alaivan is the new favourite but I’ve got him down as a soft-ground horse so usual Friday Festival ground could catch him out and if Mille Chief doesn’t make it, it looks like the Irish will have the front three in the betting.

GOLD CUP

The main news centred around Paul Nicholls’ open day where he feels Kauto Star will be unbeatable if I have read his comments correctly so a shade of odds-on strikes me as being overpriced. Nicholls reiterated that Denman will be fitter than at Newbury, that McCoy will keep the ride and that they will resist blinkers but they may try a noseband.

He also reiterated that What A Friend will miss the race having had a meeting with his owners preferring to wait for Aintree and Punchestown and, reading between the lines, I got the feeling he preferred Tricky Trickster to Taranis and My Will of his other three. Cooldine had a public workout at Leopardstown on Sunday and all seemed to go okay but, after Madison Du Berlais sulked again in the Racing Post Chase, I find it hard to believe he will take his chance.

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Week-by-week Paul Jones of Weatherbys reviews this year’s Cheltenham Festival’s hopes progress. Read his thoughts following this weekend’s action.

SUPREME NOVICES’ HURDLE

Get Me Out Here‘s chances of lining up here rather than in a handicap took a turn for the better after the handicapper whacked him up 15lbs for his latest win which means he is now rated 150 – a mark that disappointed Jonjo O’Neill which could suggest they will stick to a novice race rather than run off that mark.

Given he is officially rated 150, that means he is already good enough to win this race as Go Native was given a mark of 147 when winning this race last season. Oscar Whisky won his final prep race at Sandown very comfortably to set himself for this race alongside the same stable’s Bellvano.

However, Menorah, who was expected to do likewise in his final prep-race was beaten at Ascot by Lush Life who I doubt Henderson rates in his top half a dozen novice hurdlers. I didn’t think it was a great ride from Richard Johnson as he was slow in realising he had a challenger on the run-in after he got the last flight wrong and lost his momentum. Menorah just races with the choke out a little too much for me and as far as winning a Supreme Novices’ Hurdle is concerned.

ARKLE TROPHY

No news to report at all this week with no realistic challengers running and very little word from the main pretenders’ to read between the lines. I can see Sports Line shortening up though and especially if Ruby Walsh prefers him to Tataniano.  There has be a strong of chance of that given Tataniano was most disappointing in his final prep whereas Sports Line looks like a horse that will improve with experience.

CHAMPION HURDLE

Not a good week for Nicky Henderson, firstly he had to endure the defection of Binocular who is out for the season with muscle problems and then witness the defeat of Zaynar at odds of 1-14 and then the Kingwell Hurdle was abandoned meaning Punjabi may have to go to Cheltenham without the benefit of another run.

This is not good for Punjabi if they can’t get another run into him as he is a stuffy horse that needs to race but Henderson did say it was not as important he ran in this season’s Kingwell Hurdle as it was for him to run in the same race last year and there is talk of adding a two-mile conditions hurdle to Saturday’s Kempton card.

As for Zaynar, I know the ground was bad and they will slap cheekpieces on come the day to whizz him up but he never looked happy with Geraghty having to shake the reins at him three times down the back straight before coming under real pressure in the straight going down to the huge Quewetoo who was having his seasonal debut.

I can’t believe he will not be be trained with the World Hurdle in mind next season if they stay hurdling and this defeat would have to increase the chances of Geraghty staying loyal to Punjabi.

DAVID NICHOLSON MARES HURDLE

I noticed Tom Segal was virtually pleading in his Weekender column for Colm Murphy to change his mind and run Voler La Vedette in the Champion Hurdle as he had put her up for that race in a previous column so it will be interesting to see if that has any effect.

One mare not coming over is the Doncaster winner Zarinava who was fifth-favourite in some lists as Jessica Harrington is worried she won’t stay 2m4f. Her stablemate No One Tells Me had her prep race last week when only fifth but maybe she was just blowing the cobwebs away and only has two lengths to find with Voler La Vedette on Leopardstown form at Christmas.

I am not sure how much we should read into these things but when Ruby Walsh was asked in a recent interview which Irish trained horse he fancied his chances on most for the Festival, he nominated Quevega for this race.

NEPTUNE INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT NOVICES’ HURDLE

Rite Of Passage passed his test over 2m4f last week, after which, Dermot Weld all but confirmed him for this race rather than taking on Dunguib in the ‘Supreme’. He was long odds-on to win at Punchestown and he didn’t have to come off the bridle and it was also encouraging to see him handle the undulations okay as some felt he didn’t come down the hill at Cheltenham that well last season in the Weatherbys Champion Bumper.

I am not sure about that, I just think he has developed very quickly in the last 12 months and is now a proper physical specimen. One horse most unlikely to take him on is Coole River who beat Quel Esprit last time out as Jessica Harrington rates him too big a baby to come over to Cheltenham.

Finian’s Rainbow outclassed his rivals at long odds-on at Ascot to set himself up for a bid. Overall he was pretty good but he did dive at a couple of his hurdles in the first half of the race and, alongside Peddlers Cross (if this is his aim over the ‘Supreme’), then I rate this pair as the best of the home challenge. Although Paul Nicholls said he was favouring this race for Najaf, the Albert Bartlett may end up being the race for him.

RSA CHASE

Seriously beware if you fancy Bensalem. Alan King has sussed out this is a really hot year and has stated he will enter him for the William Hill Handicap Chase which is interesting for two reasons in that he won this race with a novice six years ago in Fork Lightning off 136 and two more novices have won this race since then.

It is my strong opinion that the handicap route will be his chosen option especially as he would near enough be favourite for the William Hill Trophy and there is also a big bonus for Plumpton winners at the Festival and that is where he won his chase debut.

Bensalem is rated 143 and I am sure he rates him in a different league to Fork Lightning so we could easily see him swerve the RSA Chase for the staying handicap on the opening day but he will have to brush up on his jumping as a bad mistake put him on the deck at Haydock and another bad mistake cost him victory over Diamond Harry at Newbury last time out in my opinion.

Weird Al‘s form just doesn’t look enough following Knockara Beau‘s run in the Reynoldstown Chase when second to Burton Port, who himself made hard work of winning at odds-on until the run-in.

Henderson hinted afterwards that Burton Port is more likely to be aimed at Aintree than Cheltenham. The disappointing aspect of the race was the non-declaring of Punchestowns who now will head to the RSA Chase off just two chase runs like Diamond Harry and Uimhiraceathair unlike the last ten winners that had three or more runs.

QUEEN MOTHER CHAMPION CHASE

Forpadydeplasterer is now back in the picture after his trainer ruled him out of the Festival two weeks ago with lameness. Not ideal. If he does line up which now looks likely, the last 11 Arkle winners to run here the next season have been placed at worst but to win a championship race surely a horse has to have a trouble-free preparation so he wouldn’t be for me and, besides, Kalahari King really should have won the Arkle anyway.

As for Kalahari King, Ferdy Murphy commented this week he may not improve all that much on his Doncaster win as he commented that the state of his fitness surprised him and clearly his work on Redcar beach had him fitter than he realised.

It looks like McCoy will either ride Petit Robin or Big Zeb. Both horses are Geraghty’s ride so I imagine McCoy will ride whichever Geraghty doesn’t as he hasn’t got a mount in the race at the moment and Henderson and Murphy both like using him when he is available.

RYANAIR CHASE

Tranquil Sea was due to have his final prep race at Naas on Sunday which was abandoned so it will be interesting to see if they try and squeeze another run into him. Planet Of Sound had a far from ideal prep when taking a crashing fall early on in the Ascot Chase and I know from my stats just how hard it is to win at the Festival directly off the back of a fall.

That part of his game has been a problem as a bad mistake cost him the Amlin Chase back in November and a poor first-fence jump shuffled him back to rear in last season’s Arkle Trophy so it was always an uphill task from then.

As such, I really can’t him for the Ryanair. Monet’s Garden won the race for the second time but looks like waiting for the Melling Chase at Aintree but the runner-up Albertas Run looks like taking his chance but if he couldn’t beat a near a 12-year-old I can’t really have him on my mind here. Paul Nolan confirmed that Joncol definitely doesn’t travel which was no great surprise and he will wait for Punchestown.

WORLD HURDLE

Mouse Morris was so disgusted with War Of Attrition‘s weight for the Grand National that he has said he won’t run so it will be the World Hurdle. After he has calmed down, it wouldn’t surprise me if they did still go to Aintree but it does now appear that he will take his chance here first and then they will decide.

At the end of the day, War Of Attrition has next to no chance of winning the World Hurdle but he could win a Grand National so I hope common sense prevails and he does go to Aintree. The Rendlesham Hurdle used to be an excellent guide but not of late and I can’t believe this season’s renewal in which Souffleur beat Kayf Aramis and Bouggler will have any effect at all on proceedings at Cheltenham.

TRIUMPH HURDLE

I have to say I was impressed with Alaivan‘s 17 lengths’ win on Saturday. Held up on this occasion rather than making it when appearing to run too freely when easily beaten by Carlito Brigante at Leopardstown, I did feel he benefited from an overly-strong pace up front but he did look classy, as he should being rated 109 on the Flat which makes him by far the best Flat horse in this season’s Triumph Hurdle.

Me Voici was the top rated juvenile in training rated 140 before winning the Victor Ludorum Hurdle at the weekend but whether he runs will depend on the ground. Originally ruled out of the Triumph after winning the Grade 1 at Chepstow on Welsh National day, there had been rumblings he may turn up at Cheltenham but connections argued after his easy Haydock win that he is still a big weak horse with a high knee action so is it a sensible thing to muck him up on faster ground for one race when he has his whole future in front of him?

It would have be soft ground for them to even consider a crack and that hasn’t been the case on the final day at the Festival for a long time. Olofi has been confirmed for this race rather than the Fred Winter which strikes me as bonkers as he is plainly not ready for the Triumph at this stage of his career.

GOLD CUP

I would be amazed now if Notre Pere travelled over after a disappointing run in the Bobbyjo Chase which he should have won comfortably on official figures but he didn’t jump well and looked booked for only third when finally getting rid of Andrew Lynch at the final fence.

Paul Nicholls once again reiterated he will run five horses in the race, in other words meaning that What A Friend is not an intended runner as Tricky Trickster, Taranis and My Will are confirmed as joining Kauto Star and Denman.

Regards Denman, paddock judge Ken Pitterson told me he just wasn’t fit at Newbury which explains why he couldn’t shake off Niche Market and led to his early tiring which led to those two mistakes. It appears likely he will wear some kind of concentration aid whether it be a noseband, blinkers or cheekpieces and I thought it was interesting the “lairy” label came out again as that was how Walsh described him before he was beaten in what is now the ‘Neptune’.

Two more unlikely to run are Money Trix after Nicky Richards ruled him out and David Pipe seemed cold on running Madison Du Berlais favouring keeping him to flat tracks with the Racing Post Chase on Saturday followed by Aintree swerving Cheltenham altogether which seems sensible given his appalling record at the track. In other news, Paul Townend has been confirmed as Cooldine‘s jockey and he has won on him over fences before last season at Thurles.

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