Week-by-week Paul Jones of Weatherbys reviews this year’s Cheltenham Festival’s hopes progress. Read his thoughts as the countdown to the greatest show on turf is nearly complete.

Supreme Novices’ Hurdle

It looks virtually certain now that Get Me Out Of Here will contest this race and therefore start as second favourite and I only see him shortening as the rails bookmakers are going to want to get Dunguib who I am certain will start bigger than his current ante-post odds.

It was interesting to hear Willie Mullins talking so enthusiastically about both Flat Out than Blackstairmountain in his interview on RPTV though I don’t doubt he still rates Blackstairmountain as his number one so Ruby Walsh will ride leaving Emmit Mullins to ride Flat Out.

I wouldn’t put anyone looking at either each-way. Of the other top eight in the betting I don’t fancy the Henderson pair of Oscar Whisky or Bellvano (may head for the County Hurdle) or Menorah but would have time for Loosen My Load‘s place chance if he does come here.

Arkle Trophy

Just the usual “everything is going to plan” reports from yards of the leading fancies in a market where the market has been stagnant for a good while now. That may change on the day if J P McManus gets stuck into his Captain Cee Bee but, if he doesn’t, I can see the layers wanting to get him so feel he is another current favourite that could start at a bigger price on the day than he is now.

After his public school I thought it was interesting that Willie Mullins stated he felt Sports Line would improve a fair bit as he commented he had endured a small problem since his last run and he is also likely to let Shakervilz to take his chance and has warned us not to underestimate him highlighting his clean jumping but he has class issues to answer for me in a race that usually goes to a class act.

Edward O’Grady has issued an upbeat report on Osana saying he will improve for his last run when third in his trial but I really just can’t see him winning.

William Hill Trophy

Looking at the weights, it would appear the bottom weight here will carry only around 10st 8lbs so the 11st rule is going to be under threat (the last 10 winners carried under 11st) so I would ignore that concentrate on the official ratings stats that say you’ve had it if rated 150+ like in the last 27 years.

I don’t read much into these things but David Pipe put up The Package as his banker of the meeting at a preview evening in Ireland last week. Character Building has a very good Festival record having won a Kim Muir and should have won the NH Chase (second but wandered on the run-in) and John Quinn has confirmed him for this race and has been backed across the board into fourth favourite but I’ve never been one to consider Grand National-bound horses in this race as they are being trained for another day and I am sure he will be delighted if he finishes in the first six.

I am not having The Tother One off top weight in a race where carrying a big weight is a big negative who is disputing fourth favouritism behind Theatrical Moment who I do have time for as Jonjo O’Neill won this with a novice last season though he has other entries at the Festival and I noticed there was money for his stablemate Isn’t That Lucky who was mapped out to win the Jewson last season and finished second and he looks to have mapped out for something this season as well.

What have the Irish got given they have won two of the last four renewals in which they have had a runner? Not a lot. Siegemaster, but I don’t trust his jumping plus he has enough weight so Casey Jones would interest me more off just 2lbs more than his Irish rating and he has been off since finishing fourth in a Grade 1 back in November and the long absence wouldn’t bother me, in fact, I would see it as a positive but he is rated 151 which would make him the highest rated winner for 28 years.

Champion Hurdle

I’ts been a strange couple of weeks for Nicky Henderson. Firstly Binocular is out for the season with a muscle problem and now there is nothing wrong with him and McCoy says he has missed no work so the Champion Hurdle looks back on the cards.

It would appear he is now going to take his chance again which means that McCoy will be required to ride him so Zaynar could now be ridden by Andrew Tinkler who won on him at Ascot as Henderson stated Geraghty will almost certainly ride Punjabi.

I still feel the each-way money will come for Punjabi who is proving to be a popular selection on the Preview Evening circuit. In addition to Go Native the quickening up of the ground is certainly in favour of Starluck who won over a mile last week in his final prep as that can help him last the trip out better plus Medermit who Alan King is convinced is better on better ground despite winning at Haydock on a testing surface but against Solwhit and Khyber Kim. And what is it with lame horses this season? Sublimity was found to lame on Saturday and now misses the race.

David Nicholson Mares’ Hurdle

The retirement of Whiteoak, who to my mind was one of just four potential winners, has weakened this race further as has the retirement of Candy Creek this week. I can pass on news that last season’s third Aura About You for the Paul Nolan yard is likely to make her seasonal debut in this race and I’ve heard good reports about her latest gallop where she reportedly tanked up the gallops.

Last season’s Champion Bumper fifth Morning Supreme has leapt into disputing joint third-favouritism now with the bookmakers. Willie Mullins had intimated going for one of the novice races with her but as the race is turning into somewhat of a non-event it would appear he may let her take her chance even if he does run the hot favourite.

Mullins’ J’Y Vole has also been a mover which would mean a switch from the Ryanair Chase if that is the case but, reading his quotes on Sunday, the Ryanair remains the plan. As the race is falling apart, Jessica Harrington is now also having second thoughts about running Zarinava who she ruled out a couple of weeks back fearing she wouldn’t stay so, unless they have shortened the course in the last fortnight, she wouldn’t be on my radar. Colm Murphy has confirmed Barry Geraghty for the ride on Voler La Vedette.

Neptune Investment Management Novices’ Hurdle

Now that Ruby Walsh has committed himself to Quel Esprit in this race he has been trimmed and will be popular on the day as well attempting to give Willie Mullins a third win on the spin in the race but I still see the money coming for Rite Of Passage.

With officials watering yesterday, obviously things are quickening up and if the ground is no worse than good-to-soft, seeing the way he came clear in the Irish November Handicap (where he ran to a classy 103), I can only think he will have too much pace for Quel Esprit who many feel should be in the Albert Bartlett having looked one-paced over 2m5f last time when beaten by Coole River.

The winner franked that form and my gut feeling is that Quel Esprit also wasn’t right that day and we will see a much better horse but my opinion of Rite Of Passage is sky high and I will not be opposing him.

I have stamina doubts about Peddlers Cross even though he is a winning pointer as he looked plenty speedy at Haydock, Reve De Sivola doesn’t jump well enough and has been beaten too many times and I can see Quantitativeeasing ending up in a handicap.

There has been money for Summit Meeting off the back of Pricewise’s recommendation plus positive words from Jessica Harrington and it is interesting she runs him rather than Coole River and I can see him go well as I can Finian’s Rainbow on better ground than when beaten in the Challow Hurdle and who Barry Geraghty has been gushing over on the Preview Evening circuit but I can not take on Rite Of Passage.

RSA Chase

The big story has been the problems with the lameness of Punchestowns. I don’t know if they were being over-cautious here and mentioning the problem thus causing many a worry for those that have already backed him but all appears to be well again after a canter on Saturday.

As a result Long Run is now favourite but if Punchestowns is fully fit I maintain he is the one to beat. The big mover of the week however has been Uimhiraceathair so you can read into that he will be Ruby Walsh’s mount. Willie Mullins also contributed to the move by admitting he wasn’t fully fit for his last run when dead-heating with Telenor and will improve plenty and he has trained three winners of the race before.

It looks like The Nightingale will miss Cheltenham altogether for Aintree if Paul Nicholls gets his way but there was a turnaround in the plans for Burton Port who will now tackle the race. Henderson commented after he won the Reynoldstown Chase that he would probably wait for Aintree but I suspect Trevor Hemmings wants a runner so they changed their plan.

Queen Mother Champion Chase

The main news last week was that Nicky Henderson has switched Petit Robin from this race to the Ryanair Chase. I can understand why they have done it as he can’t win this race if Master Minded is anywhere near his A-game but he has a squeak in the Ryanair as there is no superstar but he was last year’s third as a virtual novice and this race is more prestigious so should be running here for me.

The switch means that Barry Geraghty is now free to continue his association with Big Zeb. Master Minded is going to take an awful lot of beating and win it comfortably in my opinion and Kalahari King is the most likely to run on for second picking off those that attempted to serve it up to the favourite with his late hold-up style.

Ryanair Chase

The switch from the Champion Chase to this race for Petit Robin has thrown another contender into the mix as he has a chance but I am sure Henderson rated Barbers Shop his number one as Petit Robin is far from certain to stay 2m5f at top level and he was stuffed when upped to 2m4f in the Melling Chase last season.

It could be that his Champion Chase running when third had left its mark for Aintree rather than the trip but it is a concern. I’ve got a feeling that Tranquil Sea will start favourite and he continues to be backed after his win last week.

Alan King may stick blinkers on Voy Por Ustedes and may not have given up on him but deep down I am not convinced. The betting would suggest J’Y Vole is Willie Mullins’ number one but he has stated he thinks she is better on right-handed tracks so gave the impression he preferred Scotsirish more and his Barker may yet end up here too.

World Hurdle

The two problems with this race are that Big Buck’s has killed much of the betting interest and nothing happens after the Cleeve Hurdle so there is little to report. Time For Rupert remains the horse to interest me most in the each-way market as does Powerstation to a lesser extent given his excellent course form and the ground appears to be moving into his favour.

The vibes I am getting about Karabak are not as strong as they should be for a horse disputing second-favouritism but I don’t think there is anything wrong with him, just that punters are prefering Tidal Bay as the danger.

One thing is for certain, I am not having Sentry Duty staying well enough to finish second. Beware if you fancy Mourad (though we are betting non-runner no-bet on this race) as he is being nibbled at for another handicap at the meeting.

Triumph Hurdle

Soldatino has been the big mover but he looks a skinny price to me now as he beat little at Kempton and took his time to do so. Yes he was well on top at the end and will have learned plenty but he is no value anymore.

The same stable were hoping that Super Kenny may join him here but he had a setback that forced him out of his prep race (and hurdles debut) last week so he is out of the equation. With the ground quickening up all the time I also think Alaivan is poor value at around 4/1 as he looks like he want some real cut which is hear that Secant Star could also do with.

I did hear he had had a little setback last week which went unreported as far as I could see until Monday but Willie Mullins feels all is well again.

Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle

Momentum is getting behind Enterprise Park and I could actually see him challenge the long-time ante-post favourite Tell Massini for outright favouritism on the day. The more I think about it, the more I think we are on the two class acts of the race. Enterprise Park’s stablemate Fionnegas would worry me slightly though if he lines up here but Mullins is undecided whether he heads here or joins Quel Esprit in the Neptune.

Shinrock Paddy is the other big Irish player but has been off for three months where he also had a setback which would worry me. Restless Harry is a front runner so it will be interesting if he and fellow front Tell Massini go toe to toe throughout.

If so, stamina is going to be the name of the game here even more which would concern me if I were a The Betchworth Kid supporter as I don’t think he is absolutely guaranteed to stay all of this trip at an unrelenting gallop. The interesting new horse being considered for this race is last season’s Foxhunters’ winner Cappa Bleu but he has been disappointing since then and I have last year’s Foxhunters’ down as one of the worst I have seen.

Gold Cup

The main news this week is the injury to Taranis that has ruled him out of the rest of the season and he was one of five legitimate contenders to finish second or third in my opinion behind Kauto Star, the others being Denman, Cooldine, Imperial Commander and Tricky Trickster.

Denman has drifted in some places over the last couple of days, probably as punters feel his best chance of winning is outslogging Kauto Star but the ground is heading the wrong way for that. I have noticed a growing feeling that Tricky Trickster could be the fly in the ointment.

He is young enough, in the right yard and has different formlines to the others so we don’t know how good he is which suggests he could be the one to run above himself as usually there is one big priced horse that reaches the frame. Other than that, there is not a lot doing except Jim Dreaper confirmed that Notre Pere will not travel over. There looks like being around ten runners at this stage.

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Week-by-week Paul Jones of Weatherbys reviews this year’s Cheltenham Festival’s hopes progress. Read his thoughts following this weekend’s action.

SUPREME NOVICES’ HURDLE

The vibes I am getting is that more and more this looks like being Get Me Out Of Here‘s Festival objective and he will be popular each-way if that is the case as he has the rating already in the bag to win most renewals of this race. Peddlers Cross will not be lining up here as the Neptune has been mentioned by his trainer as his target and Henry De Bromhead also intimated the Neptune is where he would prefer to run Loosen My Load both of which would have been big players for a place here if taking their chance.

Paul Nicholls has confirmed his representative will be Pepe Simo rather than Ghizao who also heads to the Neptune but I really can not see him being good enough and the same is true of Salden Licht who was a big disappointment in the Dovecote so I imagine if he runs anywhere at the Festival, it will now be in the County Hurdle. Flat Out is a second Willie Mullins to consider in addition to Blackstairmountain as he won on his hurdling debut at Punchestown just over a week ago in a time seven seconds faster than

Won In the Dark recorded in another race on the same day and he has won again since and wasn’t disgraced in last season’s Champion Hurdle. According to Mullins he is bound for this race and his prominent style of racing is well suited to the race.

ARKLES TROPHY

Little to report this week from action on the track but at Paul Nicholls’ media day he was sweet on Woolcombe Folly suggesting the public may have underestimated him but I can’t touch a horse with just one chase start under his belt. Yes, Well Chief won it having had just one chase start but he was one of the top ten greatest two-mile chasers of all time. Woolcombe Folly will not be.

He also reiterated his feeling that Tataniano will be better on better ground but also said he may miss the race if it comes up testing and I notice they also stuck him in the Grand Annual which suggests to me they don’t think he is out of the top drawer.

Walsh is unlikely to confirm his mount until the final few days but Sports Line looks his most likely mount after he impressed in his public schooling session On Sunday. One confirmed partnership is Robert Thornton coming in for the ride on Somersby as McCoy will be claimed by his retainer to ride Captain Cee Bee which looks a good booking to me and it would be most ironic if he were to win as it was Thornton who got the spare ride on Captain Cee Bee when McCoy chose Binocular in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle two seasons ago. Mikael D’Haguenet schooled after Leopardstown but didn’t impress me with his jumping which was fiddly so they would be mad to go for the Arkle in my opinion.

CHAMPION HURDLE

An ideal final prep-race win for Punjabi where he easily beat vastly-inferior rivals that should have helped put him spot on. I don’t doubt that any of the other live Champion Hurdle hopes would also have won that race with plenty in hand but you still like to go and see them do it and he did it stylishly on ground he would not have enjoyed. I see him starting third-favourite on the day as I would very much believe that Geraghty will stay loyal to him now rather than plump for Zaynar. I know it was a mickey mouse race but I still like the idea of Punjabi arriving here off the back of a win like 22 of the last 26 winners.

I can only see four potential winners of the race they being Solwhit, Go Native providing it doesn’t turn genuine soft, Punjabi and Medermit. In my belief Khyber Kim is a mudlark and not quite good enough, Zaynar and Celestial Halo want longer trips, Starluck will struggle to get up the hill at Champion Hurdle pace and the rest are outclassed. The only other possible winner I could entertain is if they switch Voler La Vedette from the Mares Hurdle but that is only likely to happen if some of the leading Champion Hurdle hopes come out.

DAVID NICHOLSON MARES HURDLE

Colm Murphy was interviewed on ATR last week and confirmed once again that this is the aim for Voler La Vedette as he has maintained all season despite the pressure being placed on him to run in the Champion Hurdle. That said, he has left her in the Champion Hurdle in case something awry happens to one or two of the leading fancies so he has left the door marginally open but he was saying that before Bonocular was ruled out and Zaynar was beaten at 1-14 and those two factors wasn’t enough to sway him from his season-long plan.

Paul Nicholls confirmed he would run Pepite Du Soleil but she has been most disappointing this season but it would appear that another disappointing mare this season in Stravinsky Dance will miss the race as. This really is looking just a four-runner race between Quevega, Voler La Vedette, Whiteoak and No One Tells Me and the former came through her public gallop fine at the weekend though we didn’t learn much.

NEPTUNE INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT NOVICES’ HURDLE

The opposition to Rite Of Passage is starting to take shape now as Peddlers Cross was confirmed for this race as was Quel Esprit and Fionnegas for Willie Mullins (but he has been known to change his mind) and Alan King wants to run Manyriverstocross here rather than head for a handicap. Henry De Bromhead also expressed a preference to run Loosen My Load here over the ‘Supreme’ but it was only a preference so this is looking a much stronger race than a couple of weeks ago.

As for Peddlers Cross, although he is a winning pointer, he showed plenty of toe when winning all three starts this season so I just wonder whether this 2m5f may stretch him a little so I prefer Finian’s Rainbow of the home defence as I don’t really think that Manyriverstocross is quite up to this and Reve De Sivola has been beaten too many times in his career to interest me though I am sure he will put up his usual good effort.

I am not a Quantitativeeasing fan and notice he also got an entry in the two of the handicaps which suggests to me they are worried if he has the class.

RSA CHASE

For starters there are three probable notable non-runners following news that Tazbar, Bensalem and Pandoroma look like missing the race. The Feltham Chase runner-up Tazbar has definitely been ruled out of the rest of the season through injury and he was a lively outsider having won his next two starts by 14 lengths on each occasion. Alan King all but confirmed on Monday that Bensalem will indeed run in the William Hill Trophy and it looks long odds-on that Pandorama will also miss the race following a setback.

Ogee won midweek and could come here but I just have last season’s Grade 1 Sefton Hurdle winner as on the small side for a big chasing track like Cheltenham but The Nightingale is a different matter and he looked as smooth as silk when giving Paul Nicholls his fifth Pendil Chase winner on the spin. He is classy for sure but whether he is man enough for a race like the RSA Chase I don’t know as he finished distressed twice last season including when sixth in last season’s ‘Neptune’. Whether he runs is dodgy though as Nicholls has suggested he may be one to wait for Aintree.

Mikael D’Haguenet didn’t impress everyone with his public schooling session on Sunday and it is fair to say he was less than fluent over his fences looking most novicey and he had a good blow afterwards Earlier in the day his stablemate Citizen Vic followed up his Grade 1 win with another victory but it would appear he is likely to miss the Festival and maybe Mullins’ number one will be Uimhiracethair who impressed when schooling alongside Cooldine. I think he is looking more and more like Ruby Walsh’s RSA Chase mount.

QUEEN MOTHER CHAMPION CHASE

Alan King’s had a media day last week and told the assembled press that he had released Robert Thornton to ride Twist Magic for Paul Nicholls even if Oh Crick does run as his owner wanted to keep Wayne Hutchinson on board as he won the Grand Annual on him last season.

The impression I formed was that King was marginally leaning to the Grand Annual again where he conceded he would probably have top weight. Paul Nicholls was very bullish he had Master Minded back to his best at his media day which, if that is the case, the rest are fighting it out for second and another wide-margin victory awaits in his bid to match Badsworth Boy’s hat-trick in the race. David Pipe informed a preview at Exeter that all is well with Well Chief but he is realistic about his chances of placing again but he does go better left-handed and his last three runs have been on right-handed tracks.

Forpadydeplasterer now has the services of A P McCoy which was confirmed today and he looked in very good nick for a horse that was ruled out of the Festival a couple of weeks earlier when schooling well on Sunday.

WEATHERBYS CHAMPION BUMPER

News has recently filtered through that Dermot Weld has had a change of mind and will run both Elegant Concorde and Hidden Universe as he had originally stated that just one would run as they were in the same ownership but clearly his owner is a sporting kind of chap. In addition to Day In A Lifetime and Up Ou That, Willie Mullins added a third contender in his bid to win this race for a seventh time when Bishopsfurze won on his debut last week and like Day In A Lifetime, he is a once-raced, unbeaten five-year-old like five of his six winners of this race.

Kieren Fallon looks like he will have his second ride in the race as has been snapped up for Old McDonald who was last seen in December winning at Ludlow and previously finished second beaten three lengths by leading fancy for this race Tavern Times whose stable supplied last season’s runner-up. There has been some money this week for Drumbaloo whose form when beating Western Leader was franked when the runner-up won a decent novice hurdle last week and Drumbaloo has won again since albeit by a short-head but it was the same Grade 2 race that Dunguib won last season before winning here.

Araucaria now looks up against it after her odds-on defeat at Leopardstown on Sunday behind Edward O’Grady’s Shot From The Hip for the Magniers who is now fourth favourite and he looked good but I imagine J P Magnier will keep the ride and he won’t be able to claim his allowance which has to be a negative.

RYANAIR CHASE

The main focus this week surrounded Tranquil Sea‘s final prep race in the re-routed Newlands Chase at Leopardstown that was abandoned from the following weekend and he couldn’t have done it much better. Many have him down as a soft ground horse pure and simple but I am not so sure and believe he will be pressing Poquelin hard for favouritism on the day as the Irish will pile into him being their main challenger.

With regards to Voy Por Ustedes Alan King underlined he had not lost faith in him at his media day last week and, of all his Festival squad he brought out one by one in the blizzard, it was he that was the liveliest kicking and bucking away and the trainer is adamant he will improve greatly for the step back up in trip as was delighted with him in the Game Spirit until they outkicked him turning for home.

Deep Purple may turn up. Evan Williams has said all season this is not his track so he won’t run but it would appear that the lure of the Festival may prove too much and he has a chance on his Peterborough Chase form giving weight and a beating to all but the jumping in that race by many was awful and he may have been flattered. He then broke a blood vessel in the William Hill King George VI Chase and has not been seen since. He wouldn’t be for me as I think he wants flat tracks.

WORLD HURDLE

No news to report as such but why has Karabak been weaker than most in the markets this week. Paul Webber has issued an upbeat report for his Cleeve Hurdle runner-up Time For Rupert believing him to have a very good each-way chance and I can see that as he is a horse progressing with each starts and meets Tidal Bay on 4lbs better terms than when beaten five lengths last month.

Alan King was sweeter than many expecting when discussing Katchit‘s chance with the press last week commenting he would be disappointed if he is not in there fighting at the final flight on the proviso it wasn’t hock deep ground. There are a lot worse outsiders than the former Champion Hurdler.

TRIUMPH HURDLE

The market has been all over the place over the last few days following the weekend’s action and injury scares. Mille Chief missed the Adonis Hurdle through lameness as he is now a serious doubt for the race. Fingers crossed they can source the problem as soon as possible so all is not lost as they will have to get him working again soon or there is little point heading to Cheltenham if he is not in tip-top shape. It doesn’t sound promising though.

As for Secant Star, his form was franked last week by Capellanus who looks a live hope for the ‘Fred Winter’ but another leading Irish hope in Pittoni was beaten into third against older horses at the weekend and is now a major doubt as he finished “clinically abnormal”. I imagine Paul Nicholls is kicking himself for not entering the impressive Dovecote Hurdle winner on Saturday Escort’Men as he bolted up so he will head to Aintree instead. On the same card Nicky Henderson’s Soldatino won the Adonis Hurdle in the absence of Mille Chief on his British debut and just his second hurdling start. I doubt he beat much as Ultimate didn’t run his usual race on testing ground as he barely stays two miles so he wouldn’t be for me.

Given the problems with Mille Chief, Alaivan is the new favourite but I’ve got him down as a soft-ground horse so usual Friday Festival ground could catch him out and if Mille Chief doesn’t make it, it looks like the Irish will have the front three in the betting.

GOLD CUP

The main news centred around Paul Nicholls’ open day where he feels Kauto Star will be unbeatable if I have read his comments correctly so a shade of odds-on strikes me as being overpriced. Nicholls reiterated that Denman will be fitter than at Newbury, that McCoy will keep the ride and that they will resist blinkers but they may try a noseband.

He also reiterated that What A Friend will miss the race having had a meeting with his owners preferring to wait for Aintree and Punchestown and, reading between the lines, I got the feeling he preferred Tricky Trickster to Taranis and My Will of his other three. Cooldine had a public workout at Leopardstown on Sunday and all seemed to go okay but, after Madison Du Berlais sulked again in the Racing Post Chase, I find it hard to believe he will take his chance.

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